The Formula 1 season no one predicted resumes at the United States Grand Prix this weekend, live on Sky Sports F1, with Lando Norris aiming to increase the world title pressure on defending champion and points leader Max Verstappen.
The Sprint weekend at Austin’s sweeping Circuit of the Americas marks the first of the final six grands prix to the end of the season in Abu Dhabi on December 8 and is followed on successive weekends by Mexico and Brazil.
With McLaren supplanting Red Bull as F1’s fastest team from the middle of the season on a run that has taken them to the top of the Constructors’ Championship, Norris has steadily reduced Verstappen’s once-mighty Drivers’ Championship lead since the August summer break to give the sport an unexpected title fight late into the campaign.
Here’s a look at everything you need to know about how things stand in the Verstappen-Norris battle and what it all means as the defining final title run-in begins…
What’s the state of play in the championship?
The season resumes with Red Bull’s reigning champion Verstappen holding a 52-point lead over McLaren’s in-form Norris in the Drivers’ Championship.
Verstappen had held a season-high lead of 84 points after the British GP in July, but Norris has outscored him in all but one of the six races that have taken place since.
Indeed, Norris’ comeback has gathered pace in the four races since the August summer break, the McLaren driver winning two in dominant fashion and also finishing ahead of Verstappen in the others.
The margin of 52 points is the exact equivalent of winning two races with the fastest lap bonus point (25+1) on a non-Sprint race weekend and therefore means Verstappen still enjoys a handy points cushion at the summit.
How many points are left to play for?
There remains a maximum of 180 points up for grabs for a driver across the final six race weekends of the season.
That breaks down as 156 in the six grands prix (25 for a win and one for the fastest lap in each race) and 24 across the three Sprint races still to come (eight points for a win) in the USA, Brazil and Qatar.
What rate does Norris need to outscore Verstappen by?
To end up as world champion for the first time, Norris must outscore Verstappen by an average of almost nine points – or 8.67 points to be precise – at each grand prix weekend until the end of the season.
That is the points difference between first and third places (10 points) in a grand prix, for example.
Is Norris’ recent rate of gains enough if sustained?
No.
Taking the last four races as a sample, Norris has outscored Verstappen by 26 points – an average of 6.5 per weekend. The most was eight in the Netherlands and Italy, with the fewest of three in Azerbaijan.
Indeed, the only time this season that Norris has scored Verstappen by the average points margin he now requires to the end of the season was back at the Australian GP in April when Verstappen retired and he finished third (15 points).
Norris’ points quest will, though, be aided by the fact half of the remaining six races feature a Sprint race – USA, Brazil and Qatar – which means eight additional points are on offer on those three weekends.
While Verstappen was able to take advantage of early-season Sprints in China, Miami and Austria when his Red Bull was still seen as the car to beat (outscoring Norris in those three Saturday races by 15 points) the extra points being available at this stage should suit the McLaren driver.
Is Norris champion if he wins every race with Verstappen second?
Not any more.
Incredibly, that could have actually been the case after Singapore had Norris clung on to the bonus point for fastest lap to go with his dominant race win.
Instead, Daniel Ricciardo, somewhat controversially, took it away from Norris in his RB, Red Bull’s sister team, by pitting for new tyres when running 17th late in the race and bettering the McLaren’s benchmark time.
Had the fastest lap stayed with him, Norris’ deficit to Verstappen would instead have been 51 points. Had the Briton then won all six grands prix that followed with all six fastest laps and the three Sprints too – those maximum 180 points – it would have meant that he and Verstappen would amazingly be tied on points at the end of the season had the Dutchman duly finished second in every race and every Sprint (129 points). With nine race wins to Verstappen’s seven, Norris would then have been guaranteed the title.
Of course, such a repeat one-two result across so many races was, in any case, highly unlikely to occur given only two drivers in the history of the sport – one of which is Verstappen – have ever won the eight grands prix in a row Norris would have required in such a scenario. The longest run of identical one-two race results this year alone is just two races, with Verstappen and Sergio Perez in Bahrain-Saudi Arabia and Verstappen and Norris in Canada-Spain.
How soon could the title theoretically be won?
Whatever happens over the next few weeks, the absolute earliest the title could theoretically be won by Verstappen is the Sao Paulo GP weekend on November 1-3, although to do that the Red Bull driver would have to outscore Norris by at least 34 points over the forthcoming triple-header, which on recent form is certainly not conceivable.
Should Verstappen and Red Bull rediscover race-winning form from Austin then a Las Vegas coronation on November 24 is conceivable, when he would need to end the event 60 points ahead, eight more than now.
Norris, of course, will have other ideas and be aiming take his challenge all the way to the final two rounds in the Middle East, Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
How costly would a DNF be for either driver?
For Verstappen a race retirement would be damaging but still recoverable; for Norris it may effectively prove game-over.
The risk of a 25/26-point swing in the championship at this late decisive stage would naturally have major consequences for the rest of the title fight, particularly if it was the McLaren challenger who failed to see the chequered flag in a race.
But while a one-off DNF can certainly not be ruled out for either driver given the variables at play in F1, the chance of multiple car problems intervening in this battle over the season’s closing weeks appears unlikely.
Verstappen has only failed to finish once in the last 59 races – when his brakes failed at this year’s Australian GP – dating back to early 2022, while Norris’ last mechanical-related DNF was in November 2022 at that year’s Sao Paulo GP. The McLaren driver’s only retirement since then was in this year’s Austrian GP in June due to damage sustained in his collision with his Red Bull rival when fighting over the race lead.
Who’s got the quicker car for the run-in?
There does not seem to be any debate about this now: that is Lando and his McLaren.
The resurgent Woking team have won four of the last six races – two for Norris and two for Oscar Piastri – whereas Verstappen and Red Bull are eight races without a win on a run which would have seemed unfathomable back at the start of the season when the reigning champions remained all-conquering.
This year’s McLaren MCL38 has proved itself to be the grid’s most adaptable and consistent across different types of circuit, an aspect of the competitive picture that certainly plays to Norris’ advantage.
Red Bull’s hopes of getting back to winning ways between now and Abu Dhabi could rest on a significant upgrade planned to their RB20 car for Austin, as the team work to definitively dial out the handling problems that had crept into their design and get back on the front foot.
Just six races remain in Formula 1 2024 and the season resumes with the United States Grand Prix in Austin from October 18-20, live on Sky Sports F1. Stream every F1 race and more with a NOW Sports Month Membership – No contract, cancel anytime