Our betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight as he looks forward to the Saturday card in the Premier League – can Bournemouth stop Liverpool?
Nottingham Forest vs Brighton, Saturday 12.30pm
Nottingham Forest’s style of play means they soak up pressure and therefore concede a high amount of corners, especially for a team that are challenging for a top-four finish. They are conceding 6.3 corners per game in the Premier League, a figure that Brighton should be capable of hitting at the City Ground based on the likely direction of travel of the game.
Forest will sit deep, looking to hit on the counter while Brighton will be the team dominating the ball, sustaining attacks and getting into corner-winning situations.
The Seagulls won the corner race 9-1 in the corresponding fixture that ended 2-2 and a similar type of game could be on the cards despite Forest having home advantage. Brighton to win six or more corners looks too big at 5/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Brighton to win 6+ corners (5/4 with Sky Bet)
Bournemouth vs Liverpool, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
This should be great fun. Bournemouth are running hot.
In their last four games, Andoni Iraola’s men are working at a 19.7 per cent conversion rate with their finishing, which is a bonkers number and a huge increase on their 9.2 per cent conversion rate over the course of this season. In the last four games they’ve scored a goal every 5.8 shots and again that is a huge upsurge on their season average where they’ve scored every 10.8 shots per goal.
This is an unsustainable figure unless Dango Ouattara is the next Erling Haaland.
I think they might slip back to their wayward finishing ways here against one of the best defences in the Premier League.
Some may deem the Cherries as dangerous outsiders but Liverpool, fresh and ready to go after being given a rest in midweek, are such a relentless winning machine. Away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Everton vs Leicester, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Leicester look a great bet here at Evens with Sky Bet to get a result based on the injuries to Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Oriel Mangala.
The Everton striker, who has a significant hamstring injury, has missed 15 games since the start of last season and Everton have only won three of them and scored just 10 goals.
Also, their numbers this season without Mangala would worry me based on their win price at odds-on. He has missed eight games this season and they have conceded 2.3 goals per game which is very un-Everton-like.
It would be wrong to get carried away with Leicester but they did play very well in forward areas at Tottenham, moving the ball into some dangerous positions even before they got their two goals. It wasn’t the first time they have caused teams problems under Ruud van Nistelrooy – they scored at Anfield, created enough to win the game vs Man City and were the better team in their home defeat to Crystal Palace.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Leicester double chance (Evens with Sky Bet)
Ipswich vs Southampton, Saturday 3pm
This could be season defining for Ipswich. It’s a big one.
They’ve disappointed me of late, offering zilch in terms of resistance against Manchester City, who are of course vulnerable, and Liverpool. The 10 goals conceded isn’t going to help their confidence in the defensive process so Kieran McKenna has a big job on his hands to get the balance right at both ends of the pitch with expectation on them in the market to land maximum points. They are 19/20 with Sky Bet – a price I can certainly leave alone.
The equation could be simple for Ipswich, if Liam Delap plays well, Ipswich win.
He’s bound to give Jan Bednarek a busy afternoon and a foul frenzy between the pair may play out. Delap is drawing 1.93 fouls per game at home this season and Bednarek, a very aggressive defender, has made at least a foul in his last nine starts, totalling 16 fouls. He is 5/4 with Sky Bet to make two or more.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Newcastle vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Fulham are a team I’m always drawn to but rarely make me any money.
They are such a well-drilled, well-coached outfit under Marco Silva with an excellent process when it comes to their underlying numbers but they find ways not to win matches. It’s down to their lack of finishers in the final third – as seen by Rodrigo Muniz in the defeat to Manchester United.
Newcastle are almost exactly the opposite with the main man Alexander Isak leading their line. It’s 18 goals in his last 18 starts across all competitions for him.
So, even though my instincts are telling me to get with Fulham here the likelihood is they’ll play well, do many things right in the game, but Newcastle will come out on top due to their better individual quality across the pitch.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Wolves vs Aston Villa, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
This is an underrated derby and one that is becoming more intense by the season.
Since the start of the 19/20 season, this fixture is the second dirtiest when it comes to yellow cards of any Premier League fixture to have been played more than five times, producing 60 yellow cards in 11 matches.
This latest battle between West Midlands’ finest is expected to deliver on the cards front as there is so much on the line for Wolves, whose bounce under Vitor Pereira has fallen flat with four straight defeats in the Premier League.
In the last four meetings between these two there have been 75 bookings points shown per game with every game landing for those backing the 50+ booking point line with Sky Bet, who are offering up 5/6 for it to land again. It’s a high line but it’s hard to resist based on the evidence.
And I think Wolves need to take this game down a scrappy path and try and overpower Villa, who surely will be feeling the effects of their rigorous schedule at various points in this match.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: 50+ booking points (5/6 with Sky Bet)
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