Just one match remains in the league phase of the Champions League (two for teams playing on Wednesday), but even Arne Slot is wondering what it all means for the final ‘seedings’ and knockout phase.
After Liverpool’s 2-1 victory over Lille, head coach Slot said “we still don’t know yet” if it is an advantage for clubs to end as first or second seed (where his side will end) or eighth.
The higher a team finishes in the league table, the higher they are ‘seeded’, and that should – based on league performance – determine an easier path to the final.
But with European heavyweights Real Madrid and Manchester City down at 22nd and 24th in the standings, the new format means they could still be formidable opponents for a side that finishes higher up the table.
We are here to answer all the questions you may have about the league table, seedings, and how the knockout phase works…
Why does finishing higher in the Champions League league table matter?
Overall, there are two paths to the knockout phase from the league phase:
Teams who finish from 25th-36th are eliminated and unlike previous seasons, no team will drop into the Europa League.
But within those paths, the higher a team finishes within each of the groups that qualify, the better their route to the later stages of the tournament will be.
For example:
If a team finishes first or second, they will skip the knockout playoffs and play one of the winners of the matches between the 17th/18th and 15th/16th seeds in the round of 16.
If a team finishes seventh or eighth, they will skip the knockout playoffs and play one of the winners of the matches between the 9th/10th and 23rd/24th seeds in the round of 16.
If a team finishes 15th or 16th, they will play either the 17th or 18th seed in the knockout playoffs, followed by the first or second seed in the round of 16.
If a team finishes 21st or 22nd, they will play either the 11th or 12th seed in the knockout playoffs, followed by the fifth or sixth seed in the round of 16.
Essentially the higher a team places, the better chance they have of avoiding another higher seed early in the knockout phase.
Wait, so Liverpool finishing first or second doesn’t make a difference?
Not significantly. With teams grouped in this way, both first and second will be seeded and then drawn against teams that have finished 15th-18th and progress from their playoff. Both first and second will get to play the second leg of that last-16 tie at home.
Is there a draw for the Champions League knockout round? When is it?
There will be two draws after the league phase.
The first draw on Friday January 31 at 11am will determine which of the two options each team will get in the knockout playoff. For example, a team finishing 13th will find out whether they are playing against the team finishing 19th or 20th.
Seeded teams (9th-16th) will have the second leg at home and those play-off round matches take place on February 11/12 and February 18/19.
Teams seeded from 1st to 8th will have to wait until Friday February 21 to find out their opponents.
That draw will then determine who they face in the round of 16, and ultimately map out their full path to the final.
I’m a fan of a British club – who will we play next?
There may be some confusion over what this means for your team, so as it stands, let’s take a look at what the path for the British teams looks like…
Liverpool (Current seed: 1st)
Knockout playoffs: N/A
Round of 16: vs Milan (15th), PSV (16th), Club Brugge (17th) or Benfica (18th)
Arsenal (Current seed: 5th)
Knockout playoffs: N/A
Round of 16: vs LOSC Lille (11th), Bayern Munich (12th), Stuttgart (21st) or Real Madrid (22nd)
Aston Villa (Current seed: 8th)
Knockout playoffs: N/A
Round of 16: vs Brest (9th), Monaco (10th), Celtic (23rd) or Manchester City (24th)
Celtic (Current seed: 23rd)
Knockout playoffs: vs Brest (9th) or Monaco (10th)
Round of 16: vs Inter Milan (7th) or Aston Villa (8th)
Manchester City (Current seed: 24th)
Knockout playoffs: vs Brest (9th) or Monaco (10th)
Round of 16: vs Inter Milan (7th) or Aston Villa (8th)
How much could the table change by next week?
A lot! On Tuesday night, Julian Alvarez’ 90th-minute winner moved Atletico Madrid from 11th to 3rd in the table in a matter of seconds.
On that note, only three points separate the team in fifth (Arsenal) from the team in 21st (Stuttgart). A lot of movement will happen, and to add to the drama, every single match on the final matchday is being played at the same time – 8pm on Wednesday, January 29.
Will there be any ‘dead rubbers’ in the final week?
Only two! As of Wednesday, only five teams have been mathematically eliminated – Sturm Graz, Red Star Belgrade, RB Leipzig, Slovan Bratislava and Young Boys.
Red Star Belgrade face Young Boys on the final day while Sturm Graz play RB Leipzig in matches that won’t affect the final seedings, but every other team is involved in a meaningful game.