Are things threatening to turn stale for Eddie Howe at Newcastle United?
Without European football the hope was that, with a less congested schedule, the club could kick on and even mount a challenge for the Champions League places this term.
Saturday’s 1-0 home loss to Brighton was only their second at St James’ Park this calendar year, while it was also the first time they have failed to score at home since a 0-0 draw against Leicester City in May 2023.
The issue isn’t in defence, where only eight goals have been conceded in as many league games. That would suggest no snap decisions are needed.
Newcastle made a profit of £22m in summer transfer window. Their £43m spend was the third lowest of the 20 Premier League clubs with only Manchester City (£33.6m) and Liverpool (£41.5m) spending less.
To comply with profit and sustainability regulations, Elliot Anderson was sacrificed and – being a Geordie and having come through the academy – it was a decision which rankled with supporters.
Many will still travel the combined 9,425 miles Newcastle must travel to their Premier League away games this season – a new league record. Their next trip takes them to the capital this weekend, and a tough encounter away to Chelsea, live on Sky Sports.
The Magpies have gone 438 minutes in all competitions since they last scored a goal from open play – Harvey Barnes’ strike in a 2-1 defeat at Fulham – with only penalties scored against AFC Wimbledon and Manchester City in the four games since.
However, asked if attacking reinforcements will be a priority in January, head coach Howe has said: “I think we have to take a long-term strategic view looking at ages and contract lengths, positional need.
“There’ll be no snap decisions based on a couple of games where we haven’t scored. Of course if that trend was to continue long term, then we’d look at that.
“But there were attacking positions we were looking to strengthen in the creative areas, so I don’t think it was a one-dimensional transfer strategy. Of course we didn’t end up achieving success in those positions.”
Does the data point towards improvements?
All three of Newcastle’s victories have come by the narrowest margin, and they have managed just eight goals in as many league matches to date this season.
Callum Wilson has yet to play due to back and hamstring issues – but the striker is closing in on a return. Another route to goal that has dried out has been via set-pieces.
Newcastle are one of just five teams yet to score from a corner, a statistic which has coincided with Kieran Trippier being out of the team, either for fitness or tactical reasons. Having both back available should help address the creative void.
Who have been the biggest culprits in front of goal? Barnes has been the best performer, and one of the issues has been that the former Leicester winger’s preferred role is on the left – a position occupied by Anthony Gordon.
Howe spent much of the summer in an ultimately fruitless pursuit of Crystal Palace’s England defender Marc Guehi, but his efforts to add creativity to his squad also came to nothing and, with Alexander Isak and Gordon out of sorts and Wilson working his way back from injury, a cutting edge has been painfully absent.
The team’s bluntness proved fatal last weekend as a game in which they created more than enough chances to win slipped from their grasp.
They were utterly dominant for the opening 35 minutes, during which Isak squandered an opportunity he would have taken without a second invitation last season, and both he and Gordon, aided by some fine goalkeeping from Brighton’s Bart Verbruggen, were profligate throughout.
“I didn’t really like us in the last 20 minutes and we didn’t chase the game particularly well,” added Howe. “That’s something we’ll look at.”
“I think that’s the best we’ve looked, the most dominant we’ve been in a game and lo and behold, we have plenty of chances, don’t take them and concede a poor goal from our perspective from Brighton’s first real meaningful attack.
“Of course, we only have ourselves to blame for that. We need to look at that and analyse that, but the majority of the performance, especially in the early stages of the game, was very, very strong.”
Sixty per cent possession, 21 shots, but no goals. By the end, it looked like Newcastle had run out of ideas. Across the campaign, they have produced 44 high turnovers – only Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest have produced fewer.
The team have produced just seven shots from such scenarios, the two-worst in the division.
That said, Newcastle rank high for PPDA (Passes per defensive action), with only Tottenham, Arsenal and Brighton needing fewer passes from the opposition to regain possession than Howe’s 10.3.
This would suggest that more high turnovers will eventually come if Newcastle channel their intensity collectively and in the right way.
Has the England job been a distraction?
Howe, who arguably boasts the most impressive CV of any of the homegrown options, revealed last week he had no contact with the Football Association regarding the vacant England job.
Reports, however, said the FA had been deterred from pursuing Howe because of a £6m compensation payment which would have been due to Newcastle.
Regardless of whether or not he was approached, the 46-year-old has been at the centre of speculation for months that he could be the man to succeed Gareth Southgate.
Asked if the perception that he will manage his country one day added pressure, Howe has insisted: “I don’t visualise that. I genuinely think about Newcastle and trying to lift a trophy here would be my goal and I immerse myself with what I’m in currently, so no other thoughts have entered my head.
“No, I don’t take on that feeling. I just try to do the best I can. I’d never say that managing England isn’t something I’d like to do maybe one day if given the opportunity, but my focus is Newcastle, Newcastle, Newcastle.”
Howe made his name as a coach in two spells at Bournemouth either side of a brief reign at Burnley, but has been elevated to the upper echelon since his appointment at St James’ Park in November 2021.
He has enhanced his reputation by saving the club from relegation in his first season and taking Newcastle to the Carabao Cup final and into the Champions League in his second.
Now, he must place all his focus on getting his side’s European aspirations back on track – starting by ending a wait for a goal from open play that stands at just under seven hours of football.
Newcastle have lost their mojo in front of goal
Sky Sports News reporter Keith Downie:
“From a team that has banged the goals in these past two seasons, Newcastle’s faltering start to the Premier League campaign in front of goal this time around is inauspicious at best.
“Compare it to last season, when they’d scored 20 league goals by the same point and were about to knock another four past Crystal Palace.
“They are creating chances, but they’ve clearly for the time being at least, lost their mojo when it comes to chance execution.
“I was willing to tell anyone who would listen during the summer that Isak would score 30 goals this season. He was off the back of 30 for club and country last season, and had been rested up during the summer without participation in the Euros for Sweden.
“Gordon would be desperate to show what England had missed in the summer as he kicked his heels on Gareth Southgate’s subs’ bench.
“But both players have looked rusty – Isak in particular – the drop-off has been stark. You keep waiting for it to click, but eight games in they only have three goals between them. There is a feeling it will come, but for a group of players and club desperate on silverware this season, they can’t leave it much longer with points slipping away.
“Isak has had reason with a toe injury picked up in September – but he wasn’t himself before that either. There is hope his 90 minutes against Brighton on Saturday will have done him the world of good. Gordon, meanwhile, has just signed a contract extension and that could be the fillip he needs.
“But it’s not just those two. Callum Wilson has yet to feature this season to the frustration of the St James’ Park faithful, and the inability to sign an upgrade on Jacob Murphy or Miguel Almiron on the right these past few windows looks to be coming home to roost.
“In terms of the manager, there has for the first time been a few rumblings of discontent from some fans who want to see progress and feel they aren’t. They point to the fact the injury crisis of last year has subsided somewhat and there is no European football to contend with. In their view the players should be fresh and hungry. When in truth the performances so far this season have looked a little flat and inconsistent.
“Howe will point to the fact the chances are still being created and in patches his team have been good. He is right, and I do think they’ll hit their straps soon. But in the context of their season, time is against them… and their next three games are against Chelsea (twice) and Arsenal. Time to get the shooting boots on!”
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