Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide his insight and best angles on every Premier League game, including an Arsenal victory at Aston Villa.
Aston Villa vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Aston Villa cost Arsenal the Premier League title last season. Mikel Arteta’s team amassed 89 points, getting within two points of Manchester City but took zero points from a possible six against Villa and failed to even score.
There could be an added edge to Arsenal and their approach for this tricky trip. A win at Villa Park would be a huge statement of intent.
Can they do it? Certainly.
Are they a betting proposition at 4/5 with Sky Bet? I can let them win at those odds.
The fouls markets have triggered my interest.
Only Spurs (261) won more fouls than Villa (256) last season in home matches and West Ham committed 18 fouls against them on the opening weekend as the attacking trio of Ollie Watkins, Leon Bailey and Morgan Rogers are very smart at winning free-kicks.
When you throw Ezri Konsa (1.87 fouls won per 90) and John McGinn (2.06 fouls won per 90) into the mix, along with what could be a heated encounter considering the recent history, then backing Arsenal players to make fouls rates as a smart play.
The way I’d play it would be to combine Declan Rice, William Saliba and Gabriel all to make at least one foul through the Bet Builder to result in a juicy 11/4 shot with Sky Bet to cheer on.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Bournemouth vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The markets don’t give enough respect to Bournemouth.
Yes, the sale of Dominic Solanke will make their life more problematic in front of goal but as a unit, Andoni Iraola has built one of the most organised defensive outfits in the Premier League. Since beating Newcastle 2-0 in November, their expected goals against per 90 record at home of just 1.04 is the fourth best home record of any team.
They are such a difficult team to create quality chances against – mostly down to their exceptional work without the ball.
Newcastle still have questions to answer regarding the expectation that without the extra fixtures they can return to the levels we saw in the 22/23 season. They dug-in against Saints last weekend with 10-men but did struggle to find any rhythm even before the sending off, so I’d be lukewarm about their chances of taking three points against a very difficult team to break down. The 2/1 with Sky Bet on a home win looks more than fair and the 8/11 for the Cherries to avoid defeat is one of the best bets on the card.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Bournemouth double chance (8/11 with Sky Bet – part of weekend 12/1 treble!)
Wolves vs Chelsea, Sunday 2pm
Wolves have forgotten how to win football matches, winning just once in their last 12 matches across the campaigns in all competitions.
That victory came against relegated Luton too, where they only created 0.42 worth of expected goals. Gary O’Neil has to arrest this dismal run otherwise relegation threat will become a problem.
This game screams slow burner. Enzo Maresca showed at Leicester last season he doesn’t like taking risks early on in a game and is all about control. In 23 away games last season, his Leicester side kept 16 first half clean sheets – a 70 per cent strike rate. Meanwhile, Wolves, who can be very toothless in attack, only scored nine first half goals in their 19 home matches last season. The 0-0 half time correct score is simply too big at 5/2 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Liverpool vs Brentford, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
I’m not sure the 4/1 with Sky Bet about Dominik Szoboszlai scoring will be available once the Arne Slot regime really kicks into gear. The Hungarian looks exactly the type of goalscoring midfielder that Slot wants to help his front three and the signs were positive against Ipswich where he has three shots and posted four touches in the opposition box.
This game should present Szoboszlai with opportunities to let fly from range – something he loves to do.
Only Bruno Fernandes (37) has had more shots from outside the box since the start of last season than Szoboszlai (31). Brentford’s tactic of defending deep and keeping very narrow with their defensive blocks means shots from range are fired at a huge rate. The 456 shots from outside the box they’ve conceded at an average of 5.92 per game is the most of any Premier League team to have played more than 37 games in that period.
Szoboszlai to score from outside the box at 11/1 with Sky Bet is a runner.