Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide his insight and best angles on every Premier League game and tips up an 11/2 treble.
Arsenal vs Brighton, Saturday 12.30pm
The Brighton high line could be both their biggest strength and biggest weakness this season. It’s caught the eye in wins over Everton and Manchester United, catching the opposition offside 13 times already, but with that reward comes lots of risk, especially against the better players.
Arsenal are going to get big chances if they can be cute with their final ball and in Bukayo Saka they have one of the best in the world in that discipline. With a goal every other game ratio, he is a dangerous prospect for bookmakers like Sky Bet who are willing to lay 5/1 in the first goalscorer market.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Brentford vs Southampton, Saturday 3pm
Brentford are everything Southampton are not: ruthless and efficient in both boxes.
Russell Martin’s Saints have yet to score in their two Premier League games despite averaging the most possession of any team (70 per cent). The Bees beat all of the relegated teams at home last season to an aggregate of score of 8-1, suggesting Thomas Frank’s side like nothing more than flexing their muscles against the weaker teams in the division. The home win at 7/10 with Sky Bet will be popular.
A better betting proposition falls in the cards market where 50 or more bookings points looks overpriced at Evens with Sky Bet.
Southampton are a notoriously card heavy team in that no team saw more yellow cards in their games than them last season. And they have already seen 12 yellow cards and a red shown in their two Premier League matches up a level.
The man in the middle is Josh Smith, who is taking charge of just his sixth Premier League game and does like to flash the cards to the extent that 17 of his last 18 league games have seen 40 or more bookings points land from a betting perspective. Bookings looks the play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: 50+ bookings points (Evens with Sky Bet – part of 11/2 weekend treble!)
Everton vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £1M!
The Carabao Cup fixtures at this time of year are all about players making a statement to boost their chances of a league start a few days later. Iliman Ndiaye did just that against Doncaster, scoring a fine individual goal and showing some stardust that has been significantly lacking in a somewhat uninspiring Everton forward line under Sean Dyche.
He simply must be included from the start.
If he does then there are bets to be had. Ndiaye will have to muck in playing for Dyche – his team made the second most tackles of any Premier League team last season (743) and Ndiaye has already made eight in just 140 minutes of action. This match should be a tackle-fest with the Cherries having a tackle-against record of 800 from last season – no team averaged more.
Therefore, Ndiaye’s price of 5/2 with Sky Bet to make three or more tackles stands out.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Ipswich vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm
For Ipswich, the season starts here.
We’ll have a greater understanding of their capabilities by full-time following on from two intensely difficult fixtures against Liverpool and Manchester City. If they play with the same intensity and vigour as they did in their opener with Arne Slot’s team then the 21/10 quotes with Sky Bet for a home win really are tempting to follow, especially involving a team that were unbeaten in their final 21 Championship home games last season.
Although Town were tempting to put up as an outright bet, I’m going to keep it simple and just back goals.
Ipswich’s home games averaged 3.96 goals per 90 last season – a league high in the Championship – and they have already shown with their approach this term that their games will be goal-heavy.
Kieran McKenna’s football is going to excite and be quite easy to attack against when opposition teams click into gear, so Portman Road is surely going to remain a place where the goal average will be high. Over 2.5 goals at 4/5 with Sky Bet looks a winner in waiting.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals (4/5 with Sky Bet – part of 11/2 weekend treble!)
Leicester vs Aston Villa, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £1M!
Unai Emery’s Villa will be the cornerstone of many an accumulator this weekend at 4/6 with Sky Bet.
They’ve started the season in good nick and this should be the time to follow them before their workload of Champions League football causes issues.
This Leicester team look limited to say the least under Steve Cooper, who seemed quite happy with their performance at Fulham despite only creating 0.11 worth of expected goals from open play in what was a comfortable win for Marco Silva’s team. This really should also be a comfortable win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £1M!
Wolves have won just one of their last 13 matches across two seasons – but Gary O’Neil remains the right man for this job.
He has negotiated the choppy waters of selling the likes of Ruben Neves, Matheus Nunes, Max Kilman and Pedro Neto, and sticking with O’Neil to turn around Wolves’ form should prove to be a wise tactic.
They actually were the better side for large parts of their extraordinary 6-2 defeat to Chelsea, especially in the first half where Matheus Cunha scored, had one chalked off and rattled the woodwork just before half-time.
Wolves won the expected goals battle 1.96-1.68, created five big chances, had more touches in the opposition box than Chelsea, made more sprints and won more duels. The 13/8 with Sky Bet on Wolves in the draw no bet market looks a safe play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
West Ham vs Manchester City, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £1M!
Despite the upgrade in manager, I’d have given West Ham under David Moyes more of a chance of ruffling Man City than under Julen Lopetegui based on the styles of play. The Hammers are certainly going places under the new manager but to stop this City juggernaut is a huge ask for a team in the early stages of their rebuild.
One aspect of their play that has changed significantly is the amount of fouls Lopetegui’s team give away.
He has always been a manager who doesn’t mind the dark arts in terms of slowing a game down by making niggly fouls.
His Sevilla and Wolves teams always averaged towards the top of the fouls committed standings, averaging 12.98 fouls per game over those five seasons. And West Ham have already made 49 fouls in three games to an average of 16.3 per game. This makes the Evens with Sky Bet on West Ham making 12 or more fouls a punt to consider.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 1.30pm
I’m very keen to oppose Chelsea here at 4/7 with Sky Bet but finding a sensible betting strategy to attack has proven difficult. That’s due to the prospect of Chelsea being able to run hot at any point, like their whirlwind second-half goal rush at Wolves last weekend. It’s therefore difficult to simply play the Palace double chance or try and get them on side in a handicap.
I’ve decided to back the both teams to score and over 2.5 goals angle at 4/5, as if Palace keep constructing their attacks like they have done against Brentford and West Ham, goals are going to fall their way.
Since beating Liverpool, Oliver Glasner’s team have only failed to score once in their last 10 games. That came last weekend against the Hammers but Palace still created 1.53 worth of expected goals. They can help add to the scoring in what should be a lively game.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals (4/5 with Sky Bet – part of 11/2 weekend treble!)
Newcastle vs Tottenham, Sunday 1.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £1M!
It’s a shame the market is completely aligned with my theory of this being a goal-fest – and one that Tottenham stand a fair chance of winning. The last seven meetings between these two teams in the Premier League have produced 34 goals to an average of 4.9 per game, with Newcastle winning the last two games at St James’ Park by an aggregate 10-1 scoreline.
I’d be very surprised if we see anything like that one-sided encounter as Spurs look in a good, consistent place while Newcastle are still searching for the right balance in defence. Eddie Howe knows that remains a weakness, hence why he’s been desperate to land Marc Guehi from Crystal Palace.
The price doesn’t appeal enough to make it an official play but Spurs to win and over 2.5 goals should give punters a good run at 9/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Manchester United vs Liverpool, Sunday 4pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £1M!
If you’re of the persuasion that not that much has changed under Erik ten Hag since last season then the underlying statistics from the two Premier League meetings between United and Liverpool have to come into your thinking when making a decision on how this encounter will go.
The aggregate score over the two games may have read 2-2 (0-0 at Anfield and 2-2 at Old Trafford) yet Liverpool won the shot count (62-12), corner count (23-6), expected goals battle (6.06-1.4) and had more touches in the opposition box (109-29). The 17/20 with Sky Bet on the away win is going to lure many in based on those numbers.
A quirk regarding the Arne Slot era so far has been the dramatic contrast between halves, with Liverpool creating significantly more after the break with just 0.81 worth of expected goals in the first half and 4.5 in the second.
He may want to turn this into another 45-minute match where Liverpool keep things very controlled and quiet by negating United’s weapons on the counter-attack. If so, a low scoring first half could play out and the 3/1 with Sky Bet for the game to be 0-0 at the break looks interesting.