Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League card as he goes bold, making a case for Wolves to beat Man City.
Tottenham vs West Ham, Saturday 12.30pm
“I’m ready to explode once they get back in the building and that will be my therapy.”
You can just picture Ange Postecoglou rocking in his chair over the international period, plotting how to get a reaction out of his Tottenham players following their embarrassing collapse at Brighton. He branded it the “worst defeat” of his reign at Spurs, labelling the second-half performance “unacceptable”.
A reaction is expected in what is one of their biggest games of the season for the fanbase – there is little love lost between Spurs and West Ham. A way to try and profit from Postecoglou lighting a fire under the Spurs squad is to head to the player tackles market.
James Maddison has caught my eye there with his two or more tackles line looking generous at Evens with Sky Bet.
He, like Postecoglou, looked suitably peeved with how Spurs folded at Brighton, questioning the squad’s mentality.
From his midfield role, I’d expect him to be fully revved up in the heart of the play and for the third home game running make two or more tackles in the match.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Fulham vs Aston Villa, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
Ollie Watkins’ prices to be caught offside jumped out at me here.
Fulham are slowly becoming a very shrewd defensive outfit for catching opposition players offside, especially strikers.
They are averaging 3.56 offsides against this season with strikers like Chris Wood (4), Alexander Isak (2) and Jamie Vardy (3) being caught by their trap multiple times in a Premier League encounter.
Watkins was caught offside four times in the two meetings between the clubs last season so does have previous for straying beyond the Fulham line. Since the start of the 21/22 season, Watkins has been flagged offside 50 times working to an average of 0.46 offsides per game – a healthy strike rate. He is 5/2 with Sky Bet to be flagged at least twice.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Ipswich vs Everton, Saturday 3pm
Backing a low scoring game when Everton play a team towards the bottom of the Premier League table is a very profitable betting strategy. In Everton’s last seven fixtures against teams that finished the season in the bottom six the under 2.5 goals line has landed on each occasion for punters. In those seven games there have been just 10 goals scored.
Interestingly, Everton avoided defeat in all seven of those matches, too.
It therefore makes perfect sense to follow those trends here and combine Everton on the double chance and under 2.5 goals through the Bet Builder to generate a 7/4 with Sky Bet. The bet gives us lots of likely correct scorelines on our side.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Manchester United vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
It’s difficult not to let the mind wander to the previous meeting between these two. That quite remarkable 1-1 draw.
You must remember it?
In that game Brentford became just the third side on record (since 2008-09) to have 80+ touches in the oppositions box in a Premier League game and they posted 31 shots in this game (scoring with their 31st and final attempt), their highest total in a Premier League match. It really was a 1-1 battering.
There were some early signs this season that Manchester United had left those kinds of performances behind them under Erik ten Hag but the debacle against Tottenham has made it impossible to trust this team again when going off short-priced favourites.
The 4/6 with Sky Bet on the home win is easily swerved, especially with the Bees arriving on the back of walloping Wolves before the international break. The 7/2 with Sky Bet on a Brentford win certainly has potential.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Newcastle vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
With Lewis Dunk and Jean Paul van Hecke set to be reunited at the heart of the Brighton defence, the way that this defensive unit will function should be hugely improved from games in which they conceded a combined six goals against Chelsea and Tottenham. Those two have been paired together five times this season and Brighton are unbeaten, conceding just four goals.
The cohesion, chemistry and understanding between Dunk and Van Hecke allows Brighton to play their high-line very effectively, restricting opponents from sustaining attacks on their goal.
That partnership looks key to Brighton, and with doubts still lingering about whether Newcastle are truly moving forward under Eddie Howe, this looks the time to take advantage of some fancy prices for an away win. There is 12/5 with Sky Bet available – a price to take very seriously.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Southampton vs Leicester, Saturday 3pm
This may not scream a firecracker of a Premier League encounter but these types of matches involving two relegation candidates are usually great for action. You are almost guaranteed both teams having a go which lends itself to betting angles being live whether that be goals, shots, corners or fouls.
Leicester aren’t exactly the great entertainers of this league but they are swinging away under Steve Cooper, picking up points and have a player with stardust in his boots in Facundo Buonanotte, who is developing into a key man in this system.
He took his winning goal against Bournemouth like a top-class operator, and while in this vein of form he’s worth following in the goalscorer market, especially against such a timid defence like Southampton’s. The 11/1 first goalscorer price with Sky Bet certainly offers plenty of value.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Facundo Buonanotte to score first (11/1 with Sky Bet)
Bournemouth vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
I’ve been here with Bournemouth against the big teams before. They always tempt me to have a swing at their win prospects and it’s resulted in some open wallet surgery over the past 12 months.
Andoni Iraola’s team have an horrendous record against the elite. Since start of last season, Bournemouth have failed to win any of their 14 Premier League games vs last season’s top six, winning just two points from a possible 42.
That means there is no need to complicate the equation here. Simply backing Arsenal to win without conceding at 2/1 with Sky Bet looks a superb bet – something they did in both fixtures with the Cherries last season. The Gunners have conceded just five goals in their last 12 Premier League away games, winning eight of those 12 without conceding.
It’s such a profitable strategy backing this Arsenal team to win to nil on the road. They should go in again.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Arsenal to win to nil (2/1 with Sky Bet)
Wolves vs Manchester City, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
Anticipating a situation or a trend occurring before it hits the market can be a golden highway to profit if timed right. And I think I’m onto one – this might just be the beginning of the end for Manchester City’s domination of the Premier League.
This type of theory is going to sound ridiculous to some people as City are of course unbeaten in 30 Premier League games and have only suffered one league defeat in their last 47. But I think those sorts of numbers will be a thing of the past soon enough based on recent performances.
Results haven’t been affected – yet. But more of the same and it won’t take much for the fine margins of football to swing the other way.
I’m convinced performances are waning and other factors like Pep Guardiola’s future and the charges over alleged breaches of the league’s financial rules are going to have a short-term effect on their ability to win football matches. Brentford, Arsenal, Newcastle and Fulham all have wobbled City recently, showcasing a blueprint of how to expose them in transition. I wouldn’t be going near them at 2/7 with Sky Bet here.
Of course, it’s very hard to make a case for Wolves such has been their woeful performances since March, taking six points from their last 17 Premier League games.
But everything has its price.
And at 15/2 with Sky Bet, if Wolves can get their counter-attacks right, City could just be vulnerable to a seismic shock. Just like they were last season when winning 2-1 at Molinuex.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Liverpool vs Chelsea, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
I’ve sat through enough Liverpool and Chelsea games down the years to know what to expect. There have been just 17 goals scored in the last 11 fixtures across all competitions, including a run of four straight 0-0 draws, two of which stretched across extra-time in cup finals.
Chelsea have scored just two goals in their last seven games in all competitions against the Reds.
This is a fascinating encounter where we’re going to learn lots about both teams but it’s baffled me why the market is so strong on goals being scored. The market is expecting to see over three goals being bagged with the over 3.5 line set at Evens with Sky Bet. That looks wrong.
Remember, this is a new pragmatic Liverpool who like to control games and nullify the risk offered up by opposition – as seen by the goal averages where eight of their 10 games under Arne Slot have gone under 3.5 goals. Chelsea like to play with the ball, too, meaning we could see a very tactical, cagey encounter that is unlikely to descend into chaos. That’s not a bad thing as we can certainly profit from it.
The under 2.5 goals line at 2/1 with Sky Bet is a great option as is the 8/11 for under 3.5 goals. The 0-0 at 22/1 with Sky Bet is also a bit of a wild price.
SCORE PREDITION: 0-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (2/1 with Sky Bet)
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
There is a glorious simplicity about analysing this match: a solid defence meets a tame attack.
Nottingham Forest are astutely organised and a very tricky team to break down, as shown by their goals conceded tally of just six goals this season – the second best record in the Premier League. Then we have Palace, who have scored just five goals in their seven Premier League games this season and have a front-line lacking significantly in confidence.
However, Forest aren’t a team to trust to get the job done at the City Ground having won just five of their 22 Premier League home games since last August. That explains why they are as big as 11/8 with Sky Bet for this one.
When a game is projected to be low on goals the draw becomes a big runner, and both fixtures ended in stalemate last season. The draw and under 2.5 goals – basically backing either a 0-0 or a 1-1 – looks a smart play at 3/1 with Sky Bet.